John McAnulty

28 May 2009

The European parliament and the European elections that flow from it are the EU’s gestures towards democracy and are, as such, largely meaningless 

The elections, empty of content, take up default positions. In some cases this is a vote for or against the EU itself. In some cases it is a chance to vote against the government. In the North, as with every other election, it is a sectarian headcount.

In the current election what comes to the fore yet again is the sheer instability of the political dispensation. The main battle will be between the DUP and Jim Allister's Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV).  Allister will attack the DUP for sitting in government with Sinn Fein. The DUP will defend themselves by arguing that they have successfully stymied Sinn Fein and denied them the concessions promised at the time of the St. Andrews agreement.  Jim Nicholson, the unionist MEP, may be squeezed in the battle. He is handicapped by an attempt to play on British values through a renewal of the link with the Conservative party. As most unionists don’t give a toss about Britain except as a guarantor of their privilege, this gamble is unlikely to succeed.

The denial of coalition would be a strong sign of instability if this were just rhetoric, but the DUP are quite serious, with a program of measures designed to slash both Sinn Fein representation in Stormont and cross-border structures under the aegis of financial rationalization.

Allister is unlikely to win, but he is likely to do well, especially given the strong smell of corruption from the DUP. A series of issues involving the Paisleys have established that they were involved in dubious financial deals. The enquiry that followed showed that the unionist MLAs will block vote to make themselves immune from any sanction. There is much concern about double or triple jobbing, where unionists representatives sit in the councils, the Assembly and Westminster simultaneously. The Robinsons have faced criticism because of their expenses and their employment of relatives - their food bill for Westminster alone came to £30,000. Their response was arrogant dismissal, but the issue has grown to the extent that Robinson has promised that DUP Westminster MPs will resign their assembly seats and that he will consider his own position at Westminster.

However corruption is an inbuilt characteristic of loyalist populism and it will not become a defining issue in the election.  The DUP candidate Dodds has spelt out in letters of fire the defining question – unionists must vote DUP to avoid Sinn Fein coming in with the highest number of votes. If Allister achieves a high vote the DUP will swing further to the right. If he does not the DUP will continue its policy of re-establishing majority rule and marginalising Sinn Fein.  It must be borne in mind that every attempt at a settlement in the North collapsed because unionism voted it down.  This is unlikely to happen this time, but only because unionist politicians compete in denying that they support a settlement.

The DUP will fight the election on the basis that their tremendous success in shifting the Good Friday Agreement towards straightforward sectarian rule is not enough. Sinn Fein are forced to fight it from the opposite pole - expressing triumph and satisfaction at the rebuffs and humiliation that are their daily lot at Stormont. 

The rather pathetic central claim is that they 'forced' the DUP to take up government positions. The fantasy, advanced against all the evidence, is that the DUP are mellowing and that only a rump oppose coalition with Sinn Fein or want to continue to enforce sectarian privilege.

It is of interest that Sinn Fein continue with a long-established policy of speaking out of both sides of its mouth at once. So, in the South, they propose a new 'left' alliance that will be largely defined by opposition to the Lisbon Treaty. At the same time in the North their manifesto is a hymn of praise to the EU and to their own role in obtaining grants and promoting their equality agenda.

But the Sinn Fein posters are empty of slogans. The invisible slogan is 'vote Catholic' and the sectarian logic is that a vote for the minority SDLP would let the unionists win. Sinn Fein ape their DUP counterparts by keeping away from politics and letting the sectarian logic work through. 

The Provos face no formal challenge. Support for the settlement is still widespread among nationalists. Despite a higher level of activity, republican activists are as far away as ever from building a political alternative.

Nevertheless there are two major issues. Among supporters of the settlement there are questions about the high levels of corruption and, even more pointedly, about the inability of Sinn Fein to obtain any concessions or even appear to operate effectively inside Stormont.

Among the Provo base the strength of their defense of the state, and especially Martin McGuinesses' description of republican militarists as traitors, has caused deep unease. The issue for Sinn Fein is obtaining a high turnout. A significant fall would accelerate the decay of the organization and of the Northern settlement. A high turnout may win them the highest number of votes on the back of a unionist split and a stay of execution while they convince their supporters that a greater number of votes will give them more power and influence. In reality they are shackled in a subordinate relationship to a sectarian party so reactionary that, in the aftermath of the sectarian killing of Kevin McDaid, DUP members and government ministers openly excused the killing.

The only issue in the election is how long the farce in the North can hang together.