JM Thorn 

11 May 2010

Despite the shock of DUP leader Peter Robinson losing his seat, the broader general election outcome in the north was a strong endorsement of the political settlement.  Of a total 673,871 votes cast in the election, some 646,000 (96 per cent) were for parties committed to the status quo. 

The DUP returned eight of its nine seats. Though not matching the high watermark of 2005, its vote generally held up well.  Overall it achieved 25 per cent of the total.  This was down 8.7 per cent on the previous Westminster election, though this fall off in support isn’t so great when the party’s decision not to run in two constituencies (North Down and Fermanagh South Tyrone) in factored in.  It is also the case the DUP would have remained the biggest single party in the north if it contested in these areas.  Significantly, the general election result was a big improvement on the DUP’s performance in last year’s euro election in which its share of the vote fell to 18 per cent. 

The DUP remains the dominant party within unionism, with unionist voters strongly endorsing its policies and strategy.  The only problem for the party is the antipathy that many people feel towards its leader.  But this is more personal than political.  The loss of his seat can largely be put down to a protest against the way the Peter Robinson and his wife conducted themselves in public life, from the lavish lifestyles, the milking of expenses, the shady financial deals to the close links with property developers.  This problem could be easily solved by the departure of Robinson as party leader.  However, he may be able to continue as there is no evidence that his personal unpopularity is dragging down the DUP. 

The main reason for the DUP’s good performance was the failure of the TUV to make any advances.  Indeed, in this election it actually fell back significantly.   Running on a platform of opposition to power sharing it polled just 4 per cent (26,300 votes).  This was massively down on last year’s euro elections when TUV leader Jim Allister took over 66,000 votes, almost 14 per cent.  In that election the TUV took a big swathe of support from the DUP and split the unionist vote three ways.  The TUV was expecting to do well in the general election, standing candidates in ten constituencies where their intervention would not run the risk of a nationalist victory.  Many political commentators expected the TUV to make a particularly strong showing in North Antrim where its leader Jim Allister was challenging Ian Paisley Jnr.  In the event the DUP won this seat comfortably with a 12,000 majority.  The TUV’s next most credible candidate, former UUP MP Willie Ross, came fifth in the East Derry constituency behind both nationalist parties and the UUP as well as the DUP.  This poor performance by the TUV puts a serious question mark over its ability to destabilise the political settlement.  Its whole strategy was based on producing a three way split within unionism which would have left Sinn Fein as the biggest party in the Assembly with the right to nominate for the post of First Minister.  The assumption behind this was that no unionist leader would dare enter an executive under a Sinn Fein First Minister.  Jim Allister repeatedly talked of creating a bridge head of TUV MLAs to make the current system at Stromont unworkable. However, on the basis on the general election result this seems a remote prospect. 

The DUP was also aided by the continuing decline of the UUP.  It had staked everything on its election pact the Conservative Party, and the promise that local people could have influence over the new government at Westminster.  This turned out to be an unmitigated disaster for the UUP, with the party for the first time in its history failing to get any MPs elected.  It share of the vote fell to just 15 per cent. The UUP was particularly damaged by David Cameron’s announcement a week before polling day that the north would be targeted for public sector cuts. Given the north’s dependence on state spending such comments would have alarmed many within the unionist population who are reliant upon the public sector, particularly for employment.  The crash of the UUP – Conservative alliance represents the failure of the most extreme attempt to “normalise” politics in the North, of introducing British politics.  It is further evidence, if any were needed, that the North of Ireland isn’t as British as Finchley. 

Sinn Fein emerged once again as the north’s largest party, securing 25.5 per cent of the total vote, compared to the DUP’s 25 per cent.  However, its pole position is misleading, as the DUP would have likely secured the most votes if it had not stood down in two constituencies. While it did experience a small rise (1.2 per cent) in its vote Sinn Fein really didn’t come close to taking the three seats held by the SDLP.  This suggests that the balance between the nationalist parties may have stabilised.  In contrast to the DUP leader Sinn Fein’s Gerry Adams romped home is his west Belfast constituency with 71 per cent.  This is despite the controversy surrounding his handling of child sex abuse allegations against his brother and the revelations about his role in the IRA.  However, it was not all positive for Sinn Fein in West Belfast. While there was a rise in support for Adams in percentage terms, he actually got two thousand votes less than last time.  There was a massive fall in turnout in the constituency (down 13.5 per cent) and significant number (around 500) of spoiled ballots.  This does not represent opposition but it does suggest some degree of disillusionment and protest. 

The overall result of the general election in the north is a strengthening of the settlement and a consolidation of the leading positions of the DUP and Sinn Fein.  The one potential dynamic within the election, an advance for the overtly anti-power sharing TUV, did not materialise.  However, this does not mean that the TUV is a spent force, or that the views it espouses are still not held by a significant block within unionism. 

We should reject the interpretation of the election results as an assertion of “normal politics”.  What the election campaign and its outcome demonstrate is the persistence of sectarianism.  Indeed, this election was one of the most sectarian ever, with voting pacts and explicit campaigns to keep the other lot out (just witness South Belfast and Fermanagh South Tyrone).   The consolidation around the DUP and Sinn Fein also reflects a sectarianism polarisation as Catholics and Protestants rally to “their” party.  Yet, this is the inevitable outcome of a political settlement that accepts and legitimises community divisions as the basis for politics.  The success of the cross community Alliance could be posed a counter to this if were not for the fact it has joined the executive and abandoned its role as the “official opposition”. It is as complicit in the sectarian set up as any other party. 

Such a political set up is inherently conflictual and unstable.  With expected cuts to the public sector, which has so far shielded the North from the worst of the rescission, sectarianism could take on a sharper edge.  Workers cannot afford to rely on the executive to defend them; that will only lead to one community being played off against the other.  Instead they must unite, not only to oppose austerity measures, but also the sectarian structures that hold them back.