A solution to the Northern Ireland Protocol?
Unionism squirms as Tories sweet talk Europe
6 October 2022
Irish foreign affairs minister Simon Coveney
and NIO minister Steve Baker.
In the middle of the drama around the Tory party conference on October 4th there were remarkably sweet words aimed at the Dublin government and the European Union and unremarkably sour words from the Democratic Unionist Party aimed in the same direction and at the Conservative Party itself. The various comments point towards the possibility of a settlement of the Northern Ireland Protocol and at the more unlikely re-establishment of devolved government in the North.
Northern Ireland minister and arch-Brexiteer Mr Steve Baker said on Sunday he and others did not “always behave in a way which encouraged Ireland and the EU to trust us to accept that they have legitimate interests",
The NI Secretary, Chris Heaton-Harris, revealed that he is "really confident" that the UK and EU can reach a deal on amending the NI Protocol. "I think we're going to get a negotiated solution, if that comes about it will work for all communities in Northern Ireland," he said.
Prime Minister Liz Truss said she was "determined" to see progress.
The EU's ambassador to the UK, João Vale de Almeida, said there is "still a lot of work to do" to resolve the dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol. He welcomed technical talks between both sides. Speaking at an EU event at the Conservative Party conference, he said he hoped in the "coming weeks" that progress would be made.
On Tuesday, Taoiseach Mícheál Martin expressed himself very very pleased by Steve Baker's remarks and called for the UK and EU negotiators to be "given space" as they try to resolve differences over the protocol.
All the signs are that a deal will be done. The British refusal to accept the Protocol they themselves drew up was successful in forcing major concessions from the EU. Britain has enough on its plate with the convulsion of a complete withdrawal from Europe. Europe also is facing fragmentation and wants to settle. The shopkeepers in Dublin, as ever, are infinitely pliable. A red and green customs track between Britain and the North seems to hold a solution.
That would dilute, but not end, the Protocol, hence a growing panic among sections of the Democratic Unionist Party. The big weakness of constant warnings of British betrayal is that they have no defence when the British do betray them.
The far right, led by Edwin Poots, held tightly to withdrawal from the Executive, claiming that the continuation of the Protocol would be the "funeral of the Good Friday Agreement". Another issue is never mentioned. The last election saw a swing towards the extremist Traditional Unionist Voice and a sizable loyalist rejection of the whole idea of a power sharing executive. As a result, Sinn Féin drew the biggest share of the vote and a fresh Executive would see the DUP leader accept the humiliating title of Deputy First Minister. In Poot's eyes this will never happen.
The DUP leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, has a cunning plan. Emma Little-Pengelly, the DUP equivalent of the US Trumpist Marjorie Taylor Greene, will be the Deputy First Minister, effectively downgrading Stormont. The DUP leadership will dig itself in at Westminster, leaving the local administration to sink or swim.
That will not reverse the fragmentation of Unionism. However, that does not involve the collapse of the Good Friday Agreement. Stormont doesn't work, but in many of the local councils the everyday practice of sectarian corruption occurs without any difficulty. A pragmatic section of Unionism shares the trough with an ever more complacent nationalist middle class.
The latest census shows that Catholics are now the largest religious denomination but that just over 30% would vote for Irish unity. This new reality was reflected at Queen Elizabeth II’s interment, when Sinn Féin, dressed in black and with onions in their hankies, stood beside Charles Windsor as he asserted ownership of the Irish colony. The most recent sign of nationalist sentiment was the "Ireland's Future" conference in Dublin. It was heavily slanted towards the Irish bourgeois concept of “Shared Island" and it was quite clear from a number of those involved that this future has little democratic content and no progressive content for the working class.
Moves towards the solution of the protocol problem will spark yet another bout of instability in an unstable society. The failure of the DUP to join the Executive means that the British should now call an election. They say they will do so, but no-one believes them. It would increase tension without radically changing the results. Yet despite the political weaknesses, the Good Friday Agreement has been a success, draining all progressive content from a once radical and democratic movement.