COP29 declares apocalypse and sets defeat of the working class as a target
29 November 2024
Does anyone remember COP21? The 2015 climate change conference in Paris was hailed as a masterpiece of diplomacy when it set a limit of 1.5?C on global warming. Greenhouse gas emissions were to peak before 2025 at the latest and decline by 43% by 2030.
Unfortunately, the brilliance of the French diplomacy lay in getting everyone to agree to a text rather than getting any real action. How about COP28 in Dubai in 2023? It concluded with an historic agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy and increase climate finance for the most vulnerable.
At this year’s COP29 in Baku, Capital of Azerbaijan, issues of transition and renewable energy weren’t high on the agenda. The main topic under discussion was securing a “new climate finance deal”: an attempt to convince high-income countries to provide more funding to support “the poorest and most vulnerable countries in adapting to climate change”, as explained by the World Resources Institute.
Not only did the promises fall well short, ($300 billion a year as opposed to $1.3 trillion) the mechanism hung around a familiar public-private finance model that would further impoverish the victims. Even worse, this conference, as with the last, was hosted by a petrodollar nation and much of the side agenda was about increasing sales of fossil fuels. Azerbaijan, the host nation, and Saudi Arabia were both seen to be obstructing the conference.
In the background Donald Trump’s election slogans included “drill baby, drill!”, a promise to maximise US coal and oil production. The sheer corruption of the conference led to a discussion amongst scientists. One group argued that they should petition the UN to exclude major oil producers as hosts. The other group were so desperate to get anyone to listen to the evidence that they would not offer any conditions for organising COP conferences.
In the end the debate was whether to go for no deal or accept a bad deal. The victims walked away with a $300 billion deal made up mostly of promises. In the background all the past declarations evaporated and with them went the notions of an improved capitalism that would abandon fossil fuels.
With them collapsed the strategy of the green and climate crisis lobby led by political parties and NGOs. The central idea, of lobbying capitalism to reform itself has collapsed. The role of Mary Robinson and the self-proclaimed Elders Group and of former Irish Green leader Eamonn Ryan indicates their future role, to cheer any shift as a step forward as the climate fails around us.
The lobbyists used an analogy with public health. The capitalist class should support health care for the poor because everyone could get sick and spread disease. This turned out not to be true. The wealthy can isolate themselves and public health is being wound down.
Imperialism has taken a similar position on climate change. According to the elites, a technical resolution is possible. For example, Keir Starmer has committed billions to carbon capture technology which appears totally implausible but allows unlimited emissions from the fossil fuel industry.
The other element of the strategy is adaptation. Rather than trying to limit climate change, we should adapt to it. By moving uphill, moving to the poles or growing different crops we can live on a hot Earth.
This is an invitation to class struggle. The capitalist elite will be able to colonise surviving ecosystems. The poor will be abandoned. The outcome of COP 29 is that low-lying nations will be left to their fate. The same fate is offered to many other working-class communities.
Will areas of Spain be abandoned? What will happen to the population? The stoning of the Spanish royal family when they toured the devastation of recent floods is an indication of what is to come.
We will not go down without a fight!