Over the last three years Socialist Democracy has been engaged in analysis and discussion on the US led drive to global war. This has covered the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and the growing tensions between the US and China. We have sought not only to understand these particular conflicts but also the broader dynamic behind them. This has raised questions around the relative decline of the US; the rise of China: and the emergence of a multipolar world. As part of this we recently hosted an online discussion with Alan Freeman of the International Manifesto Group which has produced the most developed case for multipolarity from a left perspective. We are interested in engaging with these arguments and are publishing the following statement as reply to the group’s “Through Pluripolarity to Socialism: A Manifesto” (2021). We welcome any comments. (ed)
Socialist Democracy statement on multipolarity and socialism
February 2025
The concept of multi-polarity has become the major theme of geopolitics in recent years. Its basic proposition is that the global political economy is undergoing a fundamental change, moving from unipolarity (domination of the United States) to multipolarity where a number of nations and blocs contend for influence. The decline of the US and the rise of China is seen as the central dynamic for such a change. These global developments are accepted by a range of political analysts from those who see it as a threat to those who view it as a positive development. It is also recognised by state actors themselves.
The fact that the United States is leading a drive to war to maintain itself as the dominant power provides strong evidence that the processes that underpin the concept of multi-polarity are a material reality. However, it does not follow that a multi-polar world is actually coming into existence or that advocating multipolarity represents a way to defeat capitalism and imperialism. The most important element of analysis must be the material reality of a relative decline in US hegemony and the opportunities and dangers this represents for the working class.
The most developed case for multipolarity from a left perspective is provided by the International Manifesto Group and is summarised in “Through Pluripolarity to Socialism: A Manifesto” (2021). Its basic proposition is that not only is multipolarity coming into existence but it is, and will, create favourable conditions for the advance of the working class and of socialism. In common with other theories of multipolarity it identifies the rise of China and the emergence of the BRICS group as the key components of this. In order to make the link between multipolarity and socialism there is an explicit claim that China has a socialist economy and that its political leadership is representing the Chinese working class. By extension any international organisation, such as BRICS, that is led by China, or any development projects that China has with other counties, has a socialist orientation.
It is perfectly evident that the Chinese economy is a capitalist economy. The claim is that the Communist Party retains control of the commanding heights of the economy, that these elements do not operate through the profit motive, that CP leadership has seen over 800 million people lifted out of extreme poverty. It is further said that the belt and road initiative is directed by the state and offers a developmental model to other nations as an alternative to US exploitation.
Socialist Democracy would argue that, while the development of the Chinese economy over a few decades is astounding and the improvement in the working-class standard of living impressive, it will not lead to a socialist society. Such a society must be based on the self-activity and self-organisation of the working class.
While the 1949 revolution ushered in Communist rule it was under the leadership of a party that was already bureaucratic and hostile to the independence of the Chinese working class. Since the late 1970’s it has been overtly pro-capitalist. China has a capitalist economy in which labour is subordinated to capital and where profit seeking is the primary motor. Economic gains for the working class and peasantry run alongside very tight repression of dissent. China is also thoroughly integrated into the broader global economy. Communist party rule alongside elements of state regulation and ownership is not socialism.
The BRICS group, which in economic terms is dominated by China, does not represent an alternative form of development. Its core members are completely capitalist in orientation while some of its candidate members, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, are utterly reactionary and pro-imperialist. The primary concern of the bloc is not to challenge the existing economic order but to provide some defence from the weaponisation of the existing structures of global trade and finance by the United States. The BRICS agenda is very limited. It is much weaker than the anti-colonial movement of the post WW2 era that presented itself at the Bandung Conference and through the Non-Aligned Movement.
The period from 1945 up to the late 1980’s, when there was the Soviet bloc, US led imperialism, and a growing number of post-colonial states, could have a better claim for being multipolar than what exists today. Indeed, some of the concepts that were popularised in that period around “national democracies” and “peaceful coexistence” find echoes in the current multipolarity perspective. In retrospect we know such concepts were unfounded. The imperialist offensive of the 1980’s brought about the dissolution of the Soviet Union and ushered in a period of US domination in which neo-colonialism was a key feature.
This may be coming to an end but, with the US determined to maintain its position by military force, it is more likely to usher in global war rather than peace. The growing conflicts around the world provide strong evidence for the former.
It is possible that the continued decline of the US may lead to a period of multi-polarity. If so, the nearest historical analogy would be the pre-1914 period of inter-imperialist rivalry that produced WW1. There would be a temporary reprieve for sections of the working class in that the US would not be able to reach around the world in, for example the pursuit of Julian Assange, nor would the unity of western nations in support of the Gaza genocide be as absolute, but alongside this there would be a jockeying for position among the nations in support of their own interest.
China, Russia and their allies are not anti-imperialist. They seek an accommodation with imperialism. If they find themselves in conflict with imperialism it is because the US drive for continued domination cannot be appeased.
The theory of multipolarity is fundamentally statist in its approach, seeing a world divided into states or blocs which are either progressive or reactionary. The political position that follows from such a perspective is to rally behind the progressive bloc. This has strong echoes of the campist approach that was a feature of the Cold War era.
The Axis of Resistance in East Asia is a case study in multipolarity. The fall of Syria shows that this axis was a number of separate groups that the US and Israel, with the support of Turkyie, were able to deal with separately. Syria has been destroyed; Hezbollah are blocked in and Gaza isolated. Iran is cautiously hoping for a deal with the US. The Houthis fight on. This is far from the final word on the genocide. The anti-genocide alliance has not been defeated. Behind the headlines rests the burning anger of Arab workers and the ability of the regimes to hold them at bay.
What is missing in multipolarity analysis is the dynamic of class struggle and the absolute necessity for a working-class movement guided by socialist politics. It is only through the advance of such a movement that a decisive revolutionary break from capitalism can be made. This is the case for China and Russia just as much as it is for the imperialist West. Socialism will not come into existence through geo-politics or statecraft but by the political action of workers. Socialist Democracy believes that the building of an international working-class movement should be the priority for socialist activists.
We are sceptical about the multipolarity thesis and the claims made for it in relation to socialism. For us it appears as a repackaging of propositions from the past that have already been debunked.
On the other hand, the group has an international reach, a breadth of debate and discussion and attempts at analysis which are sadly lacking in the moribund leftist groups of the West. They are at least able to identify the central role of US imperialism in the drive to global war and avoid zigzagging around concepts of inter-imperialist rivalry to end up supporting the US and NATO.
We are not in agreement with the document produced by the International Manifesto Group, but we are open to discussion on a number of ideas within the text and how the drive to global war is impacting the working class and the cause of socialism.